miercuri, noiembrie 26, 2008

Dansand cu lupii

Dincolo de declaratiile optimiste ale oficialilor Bancii Nationale, care sustin tare si raspicat ca Romania nu se afla în situatia de a accepta un împrumut de la Fondul Monetar International sau de la Banca Mondiala, se casca, de fapt, o imensa prapastie. Cata vreme Romania a fost vedeta preferata a investitorilor straini, atrasi de “nurii” irezistibili ai oportunitatilor de profit, amenintarea prapastiei era amortizata de o plasa de salvare: finantarea deficitului extern, asigurata de fluxurile financiare de peste granita. Practic, banii care ieseau din tara prin importuri, erau compensati de investitiile straine directe, de miliardele de euro trimise trimise de capsunari acasa si, într-un procent care nu capata proportii îngrijoratoare, de împrumuturi din afara. |n momentul de fata, echilibrarea deficitului de cont curent, adica a consumului net de resurse financiare din strainatare, este o ecuatie mult mai complicata decat parea a fi la începutul anului.
Am putea spune ca Romania, manata în lupta de o crestere economica galopanta, a ramas în offside. Cu cartonas galben. Investitorii, avertizati de fluierele arbitrilor – agentiile de rating Fitch sI Standard&Poor's – bat în retragere, iar romanii care lucreaza în Spania, Italia sau în alte tari lovite de criza, îsi fac bagajele pentru a se întoarce acasa. Iar în aceste bagaje nu mai sunt miliardele de euro de altadata. Fluieraturile sI înjuraturile chibitilor din tribune, care striga de mama focului ca a fost blat, ca arbitrii sunt cumparati de agenturi straine, nu schimba situatia din teren. Dincolo de peretele de sticla al tribunei oficiale, inginerii sistemului financiar autohton flutura o întrebare chinuitoare: cum va face rost Romania de circa 20 de miliarde de euro pentru a contrabalansa deficitul extern? Efectul cartonasului galben – meritat sau nemeritat – este scumpirea finantarii straine. Cu alte cuvinte, vom obtine cei 20 de miliarde de euro cu o dobanda incomparabil mai mare. Cat de mare? Presedintele OTP Bank, Laszlo Diosi, declara ieri ca, daca ne uitam la piata riscurilor de finantare (CDS) vedem cum costurile au crescut de cinci ori fata de începutul anului, pâna la 500 de puncte de baza (5 puncte procentuale n.r.), fara a include marjele adaugate de banci. “Practic, în euro nu mai putem împrumuta cu o dobânda mai mica de 13%”, a spus Diosi.
|n acest context, cecul pe care FMI ni-l flutura sub nas ar putea parea singura cale de iesire din cercul vicios în care s-a trezit Romania. Impinsa atat de politicile economice balbaite ale Guvernului, cat si de suflul deflagratiei financiare internationale. De ce nu am accepta aceasta mana întinsa deasupra prapastiei? Pentru ca, odata cu cecul salvator, ar trebui sa înghitim sI conditiile FMI. E suficient sa consultam planurile anticriza pe care institutia le-a propus Ungariei sau Ucrainei, ca sa întelegem ca, pe puntea pe care o vom construi deasupra prapastiei, atat din resurse proprii, cat sI din banii institutiilor financiare internationale vor trece, încolonate, sI bancile autohtone, care, la randul lor, vor urni, dupa ele, artileria grea a bancilor-mama din strainatate. Din pacate, nu este suficient ca BNR sa lupte pentru independenta economica. |n acest razboi, Romania are nevoie si de concursul politicienilor, prea orbiti de jocurile sI de acadelele balciului electoral. Si suntem în razboi. Probabil ca, nu întamplator, reprezetantul roman al Bancii Mondiale, Arabela Aprahamian si-a deschis o prezentare oficiala, legata de politicile fiscale, cu avertismentul celebrului general chinez Sun TZU: This is War.: It is the most important skill in the nation/ It is the basis of life and death/ It is the philosophy of survival or destruction/ You must know it well.

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